Jeremy Corbyn will be living at 10 Downing Street this Christmas. That’s my prediction based on how I see the election campaign panning out over the next few weeks. There is no science behind my guess work, no opinion polls to back up my view or a personal wish for this to happen. It’s entirely based on intuition and experience of having correctly called the failure of Brexit to happen, the downfall of Theresa May, and the rise and predicted fall of Boris Johnson after 100 days in office.
This is how I see it. Despite the Conservatives having around a 10 point lead going into the election this won’t be reflected in seats won. They may get more votes than Labour but Labour will have more MPs on December 13 as counting will reveal. Jeremy Corbyn will not have a majority so it will be another hung parliament reflecting the country in some ways. It will mean as I have forecast for three years now no Brexit. A minority Government will fail to get a deal through parliament and the Brexit will slowly die especially if the new Government launch an enquiry into how two Conservative administrations wasted millions of pounds to get nowhere.
Labour will win a small number of seats from the Tories – enough to overtake them in the House of Commons – while the Lib Dems will only make limited progress taking a handful of seats from the Conservatives, but also losing some of those Tory MPs who joined them. The Tories biggest loss will be in Scotland where the SNP will retake seats they lost to the party of Ruth Davidson.
As for the smaller parties, the Brexit Party and UKIP will fail to win any seats while the Green Party will hold onto their Brighton stronghold and Plaid Cymru will hold onto their Welsh seats. In Northern Ireland there will be a slight erosion of the DUP and increase in Sinn Féin but no real change.
There won’t be a coalition Government but rather an agreement between Labour and the Scottish Nationalists to work together to get normal business done. As for Brexit – well that will be kicked into the long grass with another long extension and eventually dropped due to it not having enough MPs to back it. How long will the Labour administration last is a good question – it could survive for several years like they did in the 1970s when they didn’t have a majority.
These are really only my thoughts – and as usual could be wide of the mark as at the time of writing the Conservatives as set to win a majority if the polls are correct. But as so often, voters when asked which way they will vote can change their minds in the polling booth.