It’s an unfashionable opinion but Harry Mottram believes there’s a very good chance Labour will win the December election. There’s form he says with surprise wins in 1970, 1974 and 1992 when the odds were upset
Immediately after the 2017 election I wrote a piece for a trade magazine that Brexit would never happen – because it couldn’t due to the numbers in Parliament and British industry saying it would seriously damage the economy.
I also predicted that Boris Johnson would succeed Theresa May as Prime Minister as she would not get her deal to leave the EU through the House of Commons. And I predicted that Boris Johnson would be in Number 10 Downing Street for 100 days after he calls and loses an election to Labour.
Finally my prophesy has Labour instigating an enquiry into the mishandling of Brexit by the last two administrations and shelving Brexit due to it costing too much – essentially kicking it into the long grass having decided that a new vote would be too divisive.
The opinion polls look good for the Conservatives at the end of October but so much can happen in an election campaign as Harold Wilson found out back in 1970, Ted Heath in 1974 and Neil Kinnock discovered in 1982.
Both Boris Johnson and Jeremy Corbyn are good campaigners, both can draw a crowd in an election and the Labour leader surprised his critics last time round partly because younger voters were drawn to his promises on student loans and the core Labour vote coming out.
The Conservatives are concerned about The Brexit Party and UKIP gnawing away at their vote. If they make this election about Brexit to see off those joint spooks they will lose. Elections are almost always won or lost on the cost of living, wages, the economy, the NHS and what voters believe a new Government can offer.
Brexit offers uncertainty while if Labour as expected concentrate on the NHS, the economy, wages and bringing back into public ownership some of the privatized utilities they will find fertile territory. And they’ve in effect side-lined Brexit as an issue.
Boris Johnson has outlined lots of promises of more police, more hospitals and better schools – but once Brexit is achieved. To many people it sounds like jam tomorrow when they would prefer jam today – and feel the Conservatives had three years to do Brexit and failed.
Meanwhile the Scottish Nationalists are likely to retake some of the Conservative seats north of the border, Labour and the Liberal Democrats are set to take a limited number of seats in England – meaning the Conservatives will have seen their numbers reduced allowing Labour to form the next administration. Yes the Conservatives will win a small number of seats but if they hope the Northern Leave voting Labour strongholds will fall in large numbers they will be disappointed.
So far my predictions have been uncannily and surprisingly accurate – I’m a complete amateur in this field but if I’m right then Jeremy Corbyn will be the next Prime Minister during Advent.
Of course I could be wrong – after all I predicted Bristol City would win the FA Cup last year.
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